{"id":1080,"date":"2018-10-18T02:02:00","date_gmt":"2018-10-18T02:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog-2023\/?p=1080"},"modified":"2023-06-22T21:47:28","modified_gmt":"2023-06-22T21:47:28","slug":"stock-returns-and-rising-interest-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/stock-returns-and-rising-interest-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock Returns and Rising Interest Rates: A Historical Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"1080\" class=\"elementor elementor-1080\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-28130d3 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"28130d3\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-0454518\" data-id=\"0454518\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-acf8652 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"acf8652\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.13.3 - 28-05-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-stacked .elementor-drop-cap{background-color:#69727d;color:#fff}.elementor-widget-text-editor.elementor-drop-cap-view-framed .elementor-drop-cap{color:#69727d;border:3px solid;background-color:transparent}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap{margin-top:8px}.elementor-widget-text-editor:not(.elementor-drop-cap-view-default) .elementor-drop-cap-letter{width:1em;height:1em}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap{float:left;text-align:center;line-height:1;font-size:50px}.elementor-widget-text-editor .elementor-drop-cap-letter{display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<p>The speed of the recent sell-off in stocks has caught many investors by surprise. It\u2019s hard to know what causes stocks to rise and fall over short periods of time, but one factor at play may be that the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates.<\/p><p>Pundits have been discussing what raising rates means for stocks and your portfolio, but pundits are wrong as often as not. What does the data say?<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e2ea67d elementor-widget elementor-widget-template\" data-id=\"e2ea67d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"template.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-template\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"section\" data-elementor-id=\"196\" class=\"elementor elementor-196\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-339b45e0 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"339b45e0\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3f771e94\" data-id=\"3f771e94\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-44435407 elementor-cta--skin-classic elementor-animated-content elementor-bg-transform elementor-bg-transform-zoom-in elementor-widget elementor-widget-call-to-action\" data-id=\"44435407\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"call-to-action.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/elementor\/css\/custom-pro-widget-call-to-action.min.css?ver=1764022918\">\t\t<a class=\"elementor-cta\" href=\"https:\/\/simplywise.app.link\/Iv0wVANrvfb\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-cta__content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-content-item elementor-cta__content-item elementor-icon-wrapper elementor-cta__icon elementor-view-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"far fa-lightbulb\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-cta__title elementor-cta__content-item elementor-content-item\">DID YOU KNOW?<\/h2>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-cta__description elementor-cta__content-item elementor-content-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\tRetirement is 99% easier when your paperwork is organized. \n\nJoin 250,000+ Americans securely storing their important receipts, bills &amp; documents with the SimplyWise app.\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-cta__button-wrapper elementor-cta__content-item elementor-content-item \">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-cta__button elementor-button elementor-size-md\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\tGet the App\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-79c8f33 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"79c8f33\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2><b>Historical analysis<\/b><\/h2><p>We looked back at the last 70 years of history and identified every month when interest rates were at all higher than they had been 12 months prior. The chart below shows the history of the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/aboutthefed\/fedpoint\/fed15.html\">Federal Funds rate<\/a>\u00a0in the US; the orange bars show each month that meets our criteria (interest rate at time &gt; interest rate 12 month prior). We then studied what happened to the S&amp;P 500 in each subsequent month.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9de879d elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"9de879d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<style>\/*! elementor - v3.13.3 - 28-05-2023 *\/\n.elementor-widget-image{text-align:center}.elementor-widget-image a{display:inline-block}.elementor-widget-image a img[src$=\".svg\"]{width:48px}.elementor-widget-image img{vertical-align:middle;display:inline-block}<\/style>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"316\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Federal-Funds-Rate-Increasing-Periods-1-GREEN.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1083\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Federal-Funds-Rate-Increasing-Periods-1-GREEN.jpeg 870w, https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Federal-Funds-Rate-Increasing-Periods-1-GREEN-300x148.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Federal-Funds-Rate-Increasing-Periods-1-GREEN-768x380.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8546ede elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"8546ede\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>The chart below shows the average S&amp;P 500 return for periods that met our criteria vs. periods that did not. In short, stock gains tend to be 3 times lower during a rising rate environment compared to other environments, but are still positive.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-910e8f1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"910e8f1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"390\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/SP-500-Returns-in-Increasing-Interest-Rate-Environment-1-.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1084\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/SP-500-Returns-in-Increasing-Interest-Rate-Environment-1-.jpeg 877w, https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/SP-500-Returns-in-Increasing-Interest-Rate-Environment-1--300x183.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/SP-500-Returns-in-Increasing-Interest-Rate-Environment-1--768x469.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f6d0c3b elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f6d0c3b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>When we dig in deeper we see that while the market does tend to grow less in a rising rate environment\u00a0<strong><em>on average<\/em><\/strong>, there is still historical precedent for it to go up a lot during these periods. The chart below shows the how often different monthly returns occur during a rising rate environment. The chart shows that in 10% of historical cases, the market went up over 5% in a single month in the rising interest rate environment.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5976b9f elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"5976b9f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"341\" src=\"https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Distribution-of-SP-500-Returns-.jpeg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-1085\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Distribution-of-SP-500-Returns-.jpeg 877w, https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Distribution-of-SP-500-Returns--300x160.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Distribution-of-SP-500-Returns--768x409.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cd76eb3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-template\" data-id=\"cd76eb3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"template.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-template\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"section\" data-elementor-id=\"196\" class=\"elementor elementor-196\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-339b45e0 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"339b45e0\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3f771e94\" data-id=\"3f771e94\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-44435407 elementor-cta--skin-classic elementor-animated-content elementor-bg-transform elementor-bg-transform-zoom-in elementor-widget elementor-widget-call-to-action\" data-id=\"44435407\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"call-to-action.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-cta\" href=\"https:\/\/simplywise.app.link\/Iv0wVANrvfb\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-cta__content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-content-item elementor-cta__content-item elementor-icon-wrapper elementor-cta__icon elementor-view-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"far fa-lightbulb\"><\/i>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-cta__title elementor-cta__content-item elementor-content-item\">DID YOU KNOW?<\/h2>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-cta__description elementor-cta__content-item elementor-content-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\tRetirement is 99% easier when your paperwork is organized. \n\nJoin 250,000+ Americans securely storing their important receipts, bills &amp; documents with the SimplyWise app.\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-cta__button-wrapper elementor-cta__content-item elementor-content-item \">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-cta__button elementor-button elementor-size-md\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\tGet the App\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The speed of the recent sell-off in stocks has caught many investors by surprise. It\u2019s hard to know what causes stocks to rise and fall over short periods of time, but one factor at play may be that the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates. Pundits have been discussing what raising rates means for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1081,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1080","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Stock Returns and Rising Interest Rates: A Historical Analysis - SimplyWise Cost Estimator<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We looked at the last 70 years of history and analyzed stock market performance when interest rates were at all higher than they had been 12 months prior...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.simplywise.com\/blog\/stock-returns-and-rising-interest-rates\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stock Returns and Rising Interest Rates: A Historical Analysis - 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