The numbers behind this spring’s graduation season are stark. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s college labor market tracker put unemployment for recent college graduates at about 5.7% in the first quarter of 2026, well above the rate for all workers, with 41.5% of recent graduates underemployed in jobs that do not require a degree.

A New York Fed analysis published June 1 estimates that the rise of remote work explains roughly 64% of the recent increase in unemployment among young college graduates, as employers hesitate to train inexperienced hires on distributed teams. Economic research has long found that graduating into a weak labor market can scar earnings and career progression for years.

Most of that coverage asks what the tough market means for the graduates themselves. Our data answers a different question: what is it doing to the people right behind them?

In our May 2026 survey, 54% of respondents (612 of 1,140) said they personally know someone with a college degree who is struggling financially. That single fact splits the dataset. Compared with peers who do not know a struggling graduate, those who do are 20 points more likely to encourage a friend toward a skilled trade, 13 points more likely to say they would pick trade school over college today, and 17 points more likely to say the trades feel safer than office jobs in an AI future.

None of these gaps require a media narrative to explain. They track with direct observation: Gen Z is updating its view of the degree based on what is happening to the degree holders they know.

Current college students are the group most exposed to struggling graduates: 61% know one personally, compared with 54% of all respondents. They are watching the outcomes of the path they are already on, and it shows in their answers. Roughly one in three current college students (35%) say they would pick trade school if they were choosing today, 52% say the skilled trades feel safer than office jobs in an AI future, and 63% would encourage a friend their age to consider a trade.

Among respondents who are unemployed and looking for work, 43% say they would pick trade school over college today.

Asked how AI has changed their thinking about their future career, respondents repeatedly returned to the job market itself:

Skilled trades advocates have spent years making the case for trade school. Our data suggests the current graduate job market is making it for them. The strongest predictor of pro-trades sentiment in our dataset is not gender, career track, or media exposure. It is whether a respondent has watched a degree fail to pay off for someone they know.

If unemployment and underemployment among recent graduates stay elevated, the share of Gen Z with a struggling graduate in their life will grow, and on this evidence, so will the share choosing the trades.

Full findings, charts, and question wording: The June 2026 SimplyWise Trades & Technology Index.

Figures in this note are cross-tabulations computed from the June 2026 SimplyWise Trades & Technology Index dataset: an online poll of 1,140 U.S. adults ages 18 to 29, fielded via SurveyMonkey Audience in May 2026. The sample is a non-probability, opt-in panel and is not weighted to U.S. population benchmarks; results should be treated as directional. Subgroup sizes: personally knows a struggling college graduate n=612; does not n=363 (respondents answering “unsure” excluded from the comparison); current college students n=218; unemployed and looking for work n=153. “Would pick trade school” and “would encourage a friend” combine definite and probable yes responses. Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding. External labor market figures are from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and are linked where cited.